Mr. Nelson is Forest Economist, National Lumber Manufacturers Association. This article is from an address at the annual meeting of the Western Pine Association, Portland, Oregon, September 14, 1955.
“Take a look at the record,” is a suggestion for those who are concerned about a depletion of timber resources in the United States.
There is a phase of the science of metaphysics called precognition. Precognition may be defined as the ability to know things in advance. We ordinary people are rarely endowed with this attribute—but in the Nation’s capital there are persons who are not ordinary. When problems of the future are passed through the prisms of their more highly endowed minds, they become clear and lucid.
These clairvoyant people say the agriculture problem is to be solved by greater federal subsidies-subsidies under the soil bank for not producing; payments to maintain price parities; subsidies to foreign lands with which to buy our surpluses. They say the problem of peace is to be solved by continuing huge federal expenditures for defense, by the occupants of that sterile monolith on Manhattan where fly side by side the flags of the United States and the Soviet Union, and even by outright bribes, such as locomotives for India and arms for Yugoslavia. The problems of the business cycle, full employment, and security will also be solved by continued defense expenditures, plus a huge highway program, aids for small business, aids to distressed areas, larger and broader social security payments, higher minimum wages, more controls over money and credit, and a variety of other measures. The problems of providing better housing, educating our youth, medical care, conservation of resources, “cheap” public power, and recreation for everyone are to be solved, at least in part, by greater federal subsidies. The Nation’s two political party platforms, recently invoiced to the taxpayer, differ little with regard to many of these measures.
Though many of us must wear glasses to see our everyday problems, these extraordinary people in our Nation’s capital are blessed with 20-20 vision as they view the problems of the present and those of the future. There was a period in the past—some persons of advanced age can still remember it-when our destinies were charted by such natural economic laws as supply and demand, cost and profit. Those days, apparently, are gone forever.
20,000 Navigators
Jim Stevens, venerated by all who know him, is the author of many of the Paul Bunyan tales. Jim once related a conversation he had with an old boom tender on Puget Sound concerning the large number of Washington bureaucrats that were guiding our destiny. A log had floated free and Jim asked: “Why don’t you do something about it?” The old boom tender replied: “I don’t need to. On top of that log there’s about 20,000 ants and every one of them thinks he’s the navigator.”
One of the government’s self-appointed navigators and disciples of precognition is that branch of our government which holds itself responsible for the future welfare of the Nation’s forest resources. That branch of government in October 1955 issued what is called the Timber Resource Review. The importance of the TRR to your own future provides me with the excuse for now belaboring this subject. It’s a prime example of Washington’s “Great Guessing Game.”
The TRR’s presentation of statistics as to the location and supply of timber and its growth and utilization was a valuable contribution, The TRR showed that the United States in 1952 had 489 million acres of commercial forest land, against 461 million acres in 1945; 2,094 billion board feet of saw timber, against 1,601 billion feet in 1945; cubic volume growth of all timber 32 per cent greater than the cut, against an approximate balance of cut and growth in 1945; saw timber growth and cut about in balance, against a growth deficit of 50 per cent in 1945. These facts in the TRR demonstrate that nation-wide an abundance of wood material is now available and will be in the future.
But I must hasten to add that this conclusion is only that of an ordinary person who has not been exposed to the benefits of metaphysical science. It is not the conclusion of the government navigators. Instead they say:
“The Nation’s timber requirements are expected to be so high by the end of the century that timber growth will need to be from 70 to 120 per cent greater than it now is. Improved forest management at recent rates of progress appears unequal to providing a balance between cut and growth at the year 2000 . . .”
Is this prediction of a probable timber famine an occult dream or is it an actual condition that will confront us? Lumbermen should know best the answer to this question. Before answering, we might heed the advice of Abraham Lincoln who once said: “If we could first know where we are and whither we are tending, we could better judge what to do and how to do it.” It may be interesting first to examine some of the predictions that have been made in the past and to explore this gift of precognition.
False Prophets
Chief Forester Gifford Pinchot in 1908 said: “We have in store timber enough for only 20 or 30 years. A timber famine is one of the inevitable events of our near future. We have all but reached the end of our forests.” This prediction was in error.
In 1919 Chief Forester Henry S. Graves asserted that if World War I had come 15 years later, “we would have had very great embarrassment in obtaining even the lumber needed for general construction.” This prediction was in error as World War II proved.
Gifford Pinchot in 1922 said: “Our own forest resources are being depleted . . . . Lumbermen of this and other countries are thinking seriously of getting timber from the great but little known forests of Asiatic Russia.” This prediction was in error.
In 1924 the Department of Agriculture said: “Ninety-seven per cent of the sawmills operating in the South will have used their reserve supply of timber within ten years.” This prediction was in error.
In 1946 Chief Forester Lyle F. Watts said: “The current shortage of lumber is greatly retarding progress of the government’s program to expedite housing construction . . . . the facts . . . . clearly indicate that the present shortage of timber products is not a temporary one . . . . the trend in the forests is definitely toward scarcity.” Mr. Watts’ statement was in error.
In 1951 Edward C. Crafts, Assistant Chief of the Forest Service, said that “despite present trends as shown by recent and prospective progress, there is still a very large job ahead to bring growth up to prospective requirements.” This statement was in error. Just one year later, according to the TRR, growth and cut were in balance!
The President’s Materials Policy Commission in 1952 said: “Unless vigorous action is taken the Nation will either encounter a serious shortage of wood products in the next few years or be forced to mine its standing timber to an extent that will create an even more critical shortage later on.” It added, “The task of bringing about a balance between demand and annual supply is tremendous.” This was in error since the TRR said that demand and supply were in balance in the very year (1952) of this profound prediction of imbalance.
These predictions of a timber famine made over a period of almost fifty years are, as the saying goes, “as thin as the homeopathic soup that was made by boiling the shadow of a pigeon that had starved to death.” Can it be said that the TRR predictions are in the same category?
Reformers
A reformer may be defined as one who insists on his conscience being your guide. There is an almost universal desire by the bureaucratic conscience to reform all of us poor sinners and to save us from our own ignorance. We must be helped, whether we want to be or not. And so whether we like it or not we are stuck with the TRR’s prediction of a timber famine unless (ah! and here’s the homeopathic remedy) we reform, grow a lot more timber, and better protect and use what we have. The very favorable progress in forestry which has culminated today in timber growing one-third faster than it is being cut is, apparently, a development of little consequence. Our bureaucratic navigators tell us through the TRR that in the years ahead the needs of our population will be so much greater than they are now that our present rate of forestry progress cannot possibly keep up with demand.
See the Record
Applying ordinary common sense to the TRR we find the following facts to be self-evident:
(1) The TRR has page after page of statistics giving encouragement to those who believe our timber resource situation is basically sound and its future bright. The gloomy interpretive voice of the Forest Service, however, can harm permanently the market for forest products by raising doubts in the consumer’s mind concerning future timber shortages and reduced quality of products.
(2) The Forest Service somehow has developed an invulnerable prestige among many members of Congress and with other national leaders. It is not unusual, therefore, for such people to quote the Forest Service regarding the condition of our national timber budget. When the Forest Service issues gloomy statements on our future timber situation, we find them echoed by these leaders. This, in turn, sets the stage for action on legislation or on forestry programs which may be unwarranted or undesirable.
(3) The small owner of forest land is at the crux of the forestry problem as reported by the TRR. The average small tract of woodland is producing at considerably less than its potential capacity of high or medium quality trees. Economics will correct this in time. When we consider federal forest lands, we find that they also are producing good quality trees at a growth rate considerably less than the potential of such lands. Nation-wide, our farm woodlands may be doing as well or better.
(4) The TRR states that our forest land resources base may no longer be ample to meet foreseeable needs. This line of thought can lead to the subsidized retirement of millions of acres of crop land to forest cover under a so-called “Soil Bank” program and to other uneconomic federal programs. Under intensive forest practice I believe that our total present domestic production could be obtained from 50 per cent of the present commercial forest area.
(5) The TRR states that about 50 million acres of forest land need planting if they are to become productive within a reasonable time. To the extent it does not pay to plant this huge acreage, the planting is not needed. Economics obviously has not influenced this estimate of plantable area.
(6) The authors of the TRR have stated that their estimates of future increases are but a projection of the past 50 years. They have ignored the artificial stimulation experienced by our economy as a result of vast federal expenditures, easy credit, dollar inflation, and a phenomenal population growth generated by two world wars. Can we assume that these abnormal sources of stimulation will continue in the future? No one can say that our economy is immune from business recessions. Should one occur, could we not expect a substantial lesser timber demand, a reduction in cut and an increase in growth?
(7) The gloomy Forest Service interpretation of the TRR may create an impression among the free nations that the United States cannot provide for normal exports. It may encourage world trade in timber products with the communists and discourage trade with the United States.
(8) Predictions of timber scarcity may create an attitude among some forest industry people that expansion to meet a potential excess of demand over supply is good business. This is good business if such predictions are sound. If they are not, it means financial losses, liquidations, and unemployment in the expanded industries.
New Developments
And now what about recent developments that will affect the future timber supply? On the 29th of August, this year, the New York Times carried a story referring to a new chemical substance called Gibberellin which may profoundly affect the growth of plants. When applied in minute doses, it will often double the growth of plants, including certain tree species. Chemists around the world are seeking to learn the chemical structure of this material. Other fertilizers are being tried with considerable success. Here’s more progress: The forest geneticists already have produced 70 different hybrid combinations of pine which are improvements over their predecessors. They have discovered insect and disease resistant tree strains; they have produced trees that grow faster and with better form, some of them taking only one-third the time to attain maturity.
Foresters and their associates have streamlined tree seedling production in nurseries and speeded up planting with machines; they have developed economical methods for eliminating undesirable trees and brush using chemical poisons and tree girdling techniques; they have found new and better ways of managing the forest to provide for more successful natural reproduction, for increasing tree growth rates, reducing natural mortality, affording better protection from fire, insects, and disease and otherwise promoting maximum yields per acre.
Wood technologists are finding new wood products and new methods of making wood into useful products almost daily. These developments are increasingly providing a market for that large volume of surplus wood cellulose in the forest and mill which in the past has gone begging. The use of these surpluses will expand our timber supply greatly. As a result, we are fast entering an era when lumber manufacturers will become wood products manufacturers.
It is predicted that by the end of 1956 there will be over 9,000 tree farms in 44 states with more than 41 million acres. This tree farm acreage is increasing at the rate of about 5 million acres a year. Today we have over 17,000 trained foresters with about 1,000 additional foresters graduating each year. Also, today we have more than 200 private consulting forestry firms and individuals, and their number is growing.
All this spells more wood in our future.
Someone once said, “If you don’t think the lumber industry affects the well-being of every person, try picking your teeth with a ten-penny nail.” There is no one more interested in an adequate timber supply to assure permanency of operation than is the typical lumberman. He is fast developing a more intensive type of timber economy based on the use of total cubic volume of both hardwoods and softwoods. He encourages revolutionary developments in tree production, protection, and harvesting. He knows that these things spell timber abundance for himself and his industry. It is the thinking, planning, and spending of thousands upon thousands of individual lumbermen and others who are tree-minded that assure enough toothpicks and bridge timbers. The growth of private forestry enterprise is the sum total of the growth of these individual enterprises. It has not been, and we know it never can be, a consequence of government dictatorship. The timber famine philosophy built up in the TRR by the Forest Service could lead to such dictatorship.
These are some of the reasons why I believe the TRR predictions of future scarcities are the super-normal manifestation of metaphysical precognition. In other words, they lust don’t make sense! []
Ideas on Liberty
True Conservation
We conserve natural resources by using them in the most efficient and economic manner. “Uneconomic conservation” is a contradiction in terms—it is waste. But if politics dominates a conservation program, what we get is “uneconomic conservation.”
Ben Moreell, Our Nation’s Water Resources—Policies and Politics